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I told Galvin about my expectations around Apple, Inc. and it’s stocks potential, and why. And, he told the world. I’ll remind you of that by pointing you to:  not what you were thinking.

What did you do?

Then I gave you, all of you, fair (fair) warning with: how Verizon might spank Android.

Now, with the publishing of the story: Could Apple Hit $1,000?, in the venerable Wall Street Journal yesterday, it’s a reasonable bet, the market will drive you and Apple stock towards $1000.

What are you going to do, now?

Come on! Do it!

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork


The fact is most opportunities are not corollary to the obvious.

Ten years will come-and-go quickly. It already has, and it will do so, again. And, along the way, Apple’s stock could well hit one thousand dollars ($1,000.00). You can take my word for it. But, here is additional insight.

As Galvin makes his case, Apple’s revenues may triple in the next ten years. So, the stock could indeed hit $1000. But, the real play is not so obvious, and will likely be in the form of fiber optics – because that is what is needed to pipe the content. But, Data Centers will have their role as well. And, dudes like Bob Twitchell (big smarty pants genius that he is) will help lead the way with emerging technology that makes relative technology faster, more secure, and less costly.

Reactionary investment strategy like reading news briefs off MSN and Yahoo! will kill you. Whereas proactive research will build wealth. So… read between the lines from cross-referenced information. Think in terms of convergence. For example, “Apple”, “Video Anywhere”, “Fiber Optics”, “Data Centers”, and “Venture Capital”.

Follow the money BEFORE the thundering herds sort it out.

It’s about foundational thinking and strategy – relative technologies that make for great strategic partnerships. One element of the formula building off of another.

Now you owe me.

Soon… More insight into being a physical bad-ass at fifty, and great Margarita tips.

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork

It’s no secret that General Motors (“GM”) has it’s Initial Public Offering (“IPO”) this week.

What might be a secret to the masses, however, is it’s truest underlying purpose.

The government lent money to GM. There is some thinking that the government could own as much as sixty-one percent (61%) of GM. And, the big auto-maker, as leading and cutting-edge as it’s vehicles have become, will struggle for decades to pay our thinly stretched United States Treasury back – and, it does not have a prayer of meeting it’s pension obligations.

So, they, that insidious “they” (no doubt led by the pipe-smoking-black-dog), mind you, are going to foist the problem on the American Citizens the very best of the good old fashioned way, certainly time-honored… By manipulating the stock market.

Seriously.

Here is how this particular effort will play-out. You simply need to make the decision if you are going to benefit, or keep getting your collective asses kicked.

The IPO will likely open up around $28.00 a share. Insiders (by many a definition) will pay less. For example, the United States Treasury is going to own shares as will friends of the big brokerage houses. JP Morgan is the syndicate lead and they are making all manner of new friends on Capital Hill with this play. This is not widely publicized for obvious reasons.  In any event, based on the aforementioned loan details, the Treasury will break even when the stock hits approximately $44.00.

So, it’s a good bet the stock will do just that, and then some.

I’m guessing there will likely be close to a $6m billion over subscription of the stock leading up to the IPO. My experience tells me we’ll see about $1 billion in roiling. Then that “over-hang” of back-orders will kick the stock up. After that, it’s all about “management”.

This is not evil. This is simply the way things work. You, why not you, can argue it’s part of the American dream.

I have to say something. It’s one of the many reasons you read this Blog. And, it’s something a Prudent and Optimistic Gentleman finds, required.

Good luck. But, there is little of that actually involved. Fortuna, perhaps, eh Dr. Pappas?

UPDATE 11/17/2010 @ 1pm: VOILA! – GM Confirms Expanding IPO by 31 percent

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters

Brian Patrick Cork

Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average (“DOW”) plummeted close to 1000 points, and only began to right itself as the closing bell sounded. This represents the single most volatile trading day in market history. Just in case you forgot about this already; or, possibly failed to care – here is a link to the story: Link To Ridiculous Story – and another for good measure: Link To Another Ridiculous Story Discussing The Hapless Trader, however, this is my favorite: A mysterious day jolts Wall Street watchers.

The stock photo images of grim-faced and distraught traders on the floor and news reporters are priceless.

Several theories abound as to why, or how, such a thing could happen. Foremost amongst those rabid speculations was a story that some (rogue) trader inadvertently placed a coma in the wrong numerical sequence and initiated a enormous sale order that sent the automated systems into a tail-spin. That means something akin to: “he accidentally pushed the wrong button”.  Mind you, this (the event; I very am skeptical about the button) stopped the recent global enthusiasm and the markets upward trending, dead-in-it’s tracks. Markets around the world pulled back – generally stating concerns over what’s happening in Greece… for good measure…

The Greece “thing” has some merit. And, I’ll discuss that later this week.

In any event, that (all the rest of it) is likely nonsense (the theory, not the loss of enthusiasm; or, what’s not happening in Greece).

Today, markets are a bit more bullish, as is the DOW. I can prove this information by having you simply view this link:  The Dow on May 10, 2010. I’m quite clever with such things.

Okay… So, what has really occurred is: analysts and traders (think Goldman Sachs needing to “war chest” funds to cover their pending indictment) decided that by pulling off a well-orchestrated scheme stunt (also, and often, referred to, derisively, as: “shenanigans”), they could drop the market and take out a bunch of unsuspecting citizens. They probably shorted key stocks under index. They then picked their bottom-number and started taking buy-side positions in the same stocks knowing they would be bought up by day-traders (a most-excellent example of the sophomoric, if ever there was one) that thought they were buying into an upwardly trending market. So, having hedged their bet, they made big money going both ways at the expense of a lot of people reading this post.

Voila.

In the weeks to come you’ll read how the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Obama will call for some vague investigation. But, nothing will come of it.

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork

Back in 1977 Grandad said to me: “You can be a leader or a follower. Leaders know whom to follow at critical points in their lives. But, don’t ever be the wrong leader of followers”.

That requires some careful thought, and much more perspective.

Over the summer of 1988, while teaching me how to first listen and then sell (while also teaching me how to sail in Santa Monica Bay) David Sugarman, my “Jewish mentor” advised me, in that brilliant sepulchural baritone of his: “don’t bother buying a stock you might ever want to sell.”

“Trust in human nature”, he added.

These, strategies (they might be foundational philosophy /1) if you will, then required careful thought, research, informed decision-making and maturity to pull off over a lifetime.

Through the Spring of 1999 I remember the DOW breaking 10,000 for the first time with it’s delicious opportunity to revisit and contemplate David’s words.

Under pressure of very awkward and highly suspect circumstances, the market began it’s dark and ugly descent towards 6000 last year, and I decided to hold firm to Grandad and David’s, always great and evident, wisdom.

Every where I went, the only talk you could hear was about how low the DOW might go. It reminded me of the whole OJ Simpson ordeal. It’s all anyone seemed to want to focus on.

I could easily draw a correlation between the two topics. However, as a Prudent Gentlemen, I don’t see the point as it reduces the advantage, and lessons the potential effects and opportunities now relative to Laws of Natural Selection.

I will, however, offer an example, with the hopes loyal readers of this Blog harken and, perhaps remember when the next test rears itself.

I first listened to, and then observed, a local and hapless friend defy common sense and guidance, as he sold off all of his investments, leveraging both a dirth of intelligence while timing his decision to match, perfectly, mind you, the very bottom of the market. He was firm in his convictions and determined to panic. The chap was convinced the market was going to “crater (a clever and dramatic, albeit meaningless terms financially)”. I had told him there were many reasons – most of them built-in, while others were easily psychological (although both cleverly manipulated) that the market would not go below 6000. You can read more about that here (but, there is more elsewhere), and on this very Blog. Do it!

In any event, he bought into the frantic mooing to be found permeating the internet, and stampeded with so many others, failing to see the buying opportunities, and sold into a crashing market designed to fatten the wallets of the happy minority.

That fellow was a follower. And, he might have actually been a leader of followers (he was a bad example of something, or maybe a good example of a bad thing), to make his plight all the worse.

Today he’ll wring his hands and tell you that his wealth managers “screwed” him, as they misled “everyone (typically this is what thirteen year olds say in the absence of empiric evidence)” regarding their research abilities and understanding of market trends. I’ll wager they had been telling him to sit tight. The storm always abates, and the market always comes back.

Just like the current market will.

Because you can trust human nature (make sure you read that aforementioned post). And, try it from the view of a Heterodox. Consider it a Kobayashi Maru, and literally, an opportunity to Kill that Bear./2

This is an obvious point, but the only people that “lost” money in the stock market are those that panicked and sold into a down market. Conversely, there is new wealth, big money, being created, on paper, by people that have been buying stocks up for the past six months.

I have, and with good reason, cause to make another stand, right here, and say we’ll break back up, and through 12500, by the end of the First Quarter of 2010.

Do some leading research. Maybe you begin with why are the banks really hoarding all that cash?

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork

1/ There is some agreement, therefore, that philosophy is based on method, and is rational, systematic and critical, or characterized by logical argument.

Intrinsic Character: Philosophy can be distinguished from empirical science and religion. The Penguin Encyclopedia says that philosophy differs from science in that its questions cannot be answered empirically, i.e. by observation or experiment, and from religion, in that its purpose is entirely intellectual, and allows no place for faith or revelation.

2/ From the Movie: “The Edge”.

Analysts and pundits are abuzz.

Apple stock is making yet another move. And, for good reason.

I’ll addrress the rumors, here, now.

The hell with that Macberry.

Apple gave me an offer I’d dare not refuse. Consistent readers of this Blog have ably followed the epic story-line whereby AT&T, combined with a faulty radio antennae in the iPhone, had utterly, failed me.

However, AT&T executives alerted to my departure, rallied first with senior engineers, followed by vastly improved service (look for that story here, on this very Blog, soon). And now Apple, Inc., with a prototype radio, and vastly improved software have, and triumphantly, I should think, raised the technology bar and gathered my attention and continued business.

It’s true… I’m packin’ an iPhone, again.

Peace be to  my Brothers and sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork

About a year ago. Well…In fact, exactly a year ago, I made two bold, albeit, from my perspective, obvious predictions for the benefit of Chip Bulloch:

1.  HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm would return (its been on hiatus for eighteen months); and,
2.  Apple stock would climb back. As of today, it’s risen from its fifty two week low of 78 to over 184.

That was easy. Especially for a Prudent Gentleman.

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork

what’s all this about?

I can’t explain what that damn tree means - or, if it might stand for something.

However, here I do discuss events, people and things in our world - and, my (hardly simplistic, albeit inarticulate) views around them.

So, while I harangue the public in my not so gentle way, you will discover that I am fascinated by all things arcane, curious about those whom appear religious, love music, dabble in politics, loathe the media, value education, still think I am an athlete, and might offer a recipe.

All the while, striving mightily, and daily, to remain a prudent and optimistic gentleman.

brian cork by John Campbell

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"Perhaps victory can be realized best when the heart changes."

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about this particular Theme:

I'll warn you now that Tarski is theme of this blog created by Benedict Eastaugh and Chris Sternal-Johnson. It is named for the logician Alfred Tarski. I'll recommend his papers ‘The Concept of Truth in Formalized Languages’ and ‘On the Concept of Logical Consequence’, both of which can be found in the collection Logic, Semantics, Metamathematics.